Forex Training Course Winner

BEST PRACTICE

I have been involved in continuous research to find the optimal conditions and parameters for currency pairs to deliver maximum profitability, as well as finding those with good returns and at the same time having very low risk. This research takes lots of time (to optimize one currency pair for the Daily time frame for one broker for just two parameters takes 5 days) and it is neverending. As the markets change we have to do it all over again. Sometimes I think it is like a dog chasing its tail. But every little thing that can make our traders more successful is pursued and then shared freely. I have only really started this research for the SR System around April 2014 and so we are still in the beginning stages. There is a huge amount still to be done. Here is some of my preliminary findings. (As the research continues these results will grow in volume and variety and hopefully also in dependability)

N.B. PLEASE CONSIDER THESE PRELIMINARY RESULTS ONLY AS GUIDELINES AND OF INTEREST ONLY, AND NOT AS THE GOSPEL TO TRADE WITH. WE ARE JUST TOO FAR AWAY FROM DRAWING FINAL CONCLUSIONS. WHEN WE REACH A STAGE WHERE RESULTS ARE MORE THOROUGHLY TESTED AND RELIABLE, AND CAN BE USED IN LIVE TRADING, I WILL MAKE THE NECESSARY ANNOUNCEMENTS

 

SOME GENERAL OBSERVATIONS:
  1. Tests have been run on data from at least 4 different brokers and covers the months of January 2014 until the beginning of June 2014.
  2. Tests were done to find the optimal Stop Loss and Take Profit settings for different currency pairs. That says that we have not yet tested the effect of a trend close instead of a Take Profit close on the profit situation. That is planned for the future. Although the Stop Loss settings were very important, we were shocked to see the critical role that the right Take Profit has on profitability. Stop Losses were quite "stable" around the 50 - 80 pip area, but Take Profits were all over the place and varied from 30 to as much as 160 (which was the limits I tested) So setting Take Profits need much more study to find why there is such a wide difference, and how we can determine where to set it. This was a real eye opener!
  3. It was somewhat disturbing to find that the results from different brokers could differ hugely. E.g. Running the same test with the same parameters on USDJPY with two different brokers gave different profits of $2 091.22 and $3 674.47 (a 76% difference) - and the same test run on EURAUD with two different brokers gave a profit of $1 780.90 for the one broker and only $ 333.41 for the other broker (a 454% difference!!) These huge differences in profits with different brokers are a huge concern for me, and I have scheduled some intensive research in the near term to find out the cause. (It may be that we will have to recommend the use of only certain brokers in future - but maybe there is a much less drastic solution or reason for these differences)
  4. It was not much of a surprise to find that currencies that were in a strong trend gave better results - even with a Take Profit and not a Trend Close. E.g. currencies like the NZD, JPY and EUR that showed some good direction at times helped to achieve better profitability. I have noticed for some time the erratic choppy behaviour of the old favourite EURUSD (which is the highest traded currency pair) and was not surprised to see that this currency delivered poor results on the H1 time frame, although if traded on the shorter time frame e.g. delivered respectable profits, when using a much tighter Stop Loss and Take Profit targets.
  5. It appears that I will have to fine tune my alert signals to be given at better and more suitable times. E.g. it is good to give a BUY or SELL signal for a pair that trades well on the London market, but what about some pairs like the AUDJPY that has its runs during the early mornings, e.g. 1h00 - 3h00? At the moment I give no signals during that time, but I may have to look at this again. Maybe I must optimise my signals to be given just before the pair's normal high volatile period when a run can be expected?
  6. The Daily time frame may require some adaptation of our rules. E.g. it can take two or more weeks just for the "breaking rule" to be fulfilled. That takes a lot of patience! Also to make the same profit on the Daily can take 10 times as long as on the H1 - that is if we apply the same money management rules. Perhaps we should consider the H4 time frame in future.
  7. As already mentioned, this is still early days. In time we hope to learn some valuable lessons from all this research that will give us that extra edge in trading profitably. So keep coming back to this page to see the latest results.


Forex


H1 Time Frame

  1. The following table gives us the best results that have been achieved by the currency pairs listed based on optimised Stop Losses and Take Profits.
  2. The period tested was from beginning of January 2014 until beginning June 2014.
  3. As can be seen the number of profitable trades over this period was mostly very low, signifying the importance of only taking quality trades.
  4. Only in 4 of the 21 cases were the Risk : Reward ratio (R : R) worse that 1 : 1. The highest was 1 : 3.20 !! (CHFJPY).
  5. The % Drawdown (% D/D) is very low with an alltime low of only 3.34% (USDCHF), which together with the R : R ratio tells us that the SR System is a VERY LOW RISK (but very profitable) system to trade. Even in the worst R : R situation the drawdown was still only 10.89%.
  6. If you traded 20 of these pairs over the 5 months (approximately averaging one trade per day) you would have grown your account from $10 000 to over $37 000! Proof that the SR System can be a very profitable system. 86% of the currency pairs tested traded at a profit. Remember this gives us the potential and may not be achieved by normal trading.
  7. Remember also though that a computer program cannot emulate manual trading completely so trades done manually would give much better results.
  8. I have marked Good to Excellent performances in Green and Not Very Good performances in Red. The rest that I left unmarked have average performance, but are still profitable.
  9. There are still a few currency pairs that must be tested and will be added later on.
  10. Profit Ratio's equal to 0 means that there were no losing trades - 100% winning trades.

CurrPair Stop Loss Take Profit # Trans Profit Ratio ADR T/P : ADR R : R % D/D Profit
CHFJPY StopLoss=50  TakeProfit=160 2 2.60 79 2.02 3.20 15.47 1 302.84
USDCHF StopLoss=70  TakeProfit=70 4 3.35 51 1.37 1.00 3.34 2 101.82
USDJPY StopLoss=70  TakeProfit=50 7 4.75 64 0.78 0.71 13.26 3 674.47
AUDJPY StopLoss=70  TakeProfit=30 3 0.00 89 0.34 0.43 10.89 1 259.21
EURJPY StopLoss=70  TakeProfit=60 8 5.02 101 0.60 0.86 16.63 5 521.47
NZDJPY StopLoss=70  TakeProfit=40 7 2.88 83 0.48 0.57 15.72 2 322.01
NZDCAD StopLoss=50  TakeProfit=90 2 0.00 77 1.17 1.80 8.11 2 526.00
USDCAD StopLoss=50  TakeProfit=60 2 0.00 64 0.94 1.20 6.51 1 636.03
AUDUSD StopLoss=50  TakeProfit=70 5 1.83 70 1.00 1.40 9.99 1 367.30
AUDNZD StopLoss=60  TakeProfit=40 5 2.64 68 0.59 0.67 11.45 1 317.77
AUDCAD StopLoss=70  TakeProfit=100 3 0.00 77 1.30 1.43 9.67 4 560.16
EURUSD StopLoss=80  TakeProfit=80 2 1.06 68 1.18 1.00 14.40 57.09
EURNZD StopLoss=80  TakeProfit=120 5 2.38 132 0.91 1.50 14.57 2 751.68
EURAUD StopLoss=50  TakeProfit=80 5 2.16 127 0.63 1.60 5.07 1 780.90
EURGBP StopLoss=60  TakeProfit=110 4 1.66 43 2.56 1.83 17.79 1 167.58
GBPUSD StopLoss=80  TakeProfit=80 6 1.92 81 1.00 1.00 17.09 2 329.11
GBPCHF StopLoss=50  TakeProfit=120 2 2.00 90 1.33 2.40 8.20 778.40
GBPNZD StopLoss=50  TakeProfit=120 5 2.98 136 1.13 2.40 15.53 3 468.17
GBPJPY   121 0
AUDCHF   71 0
CADCHF   62 0

 

 

Tips of how to trade the SR System more profitably:

  1. One of the most important tips for successful traing is to be careful to take a trade when the trend has been going for quite a while, and may be at the point of exhaustion or reversal. E.g. if the trend is in process for 5 + days on the H1 time frame and 15+ days on the H4 time frame you should be cautious in placing trades with large Take Profits. When in doubt check the RSI indicator with a 14 period and if the RSI is 30- in the case of a SELL signal, or 70+ in the case of a BUY signal, it would be prudent to stay out of the trade.
  2. When the price moves sharply away from the trend line in a direction that is more vertical that opens a lot of space between the price (or new short term trend line) and the trend line, caution should also be applied to trading in the direction of the sharp divergence if it has moved for a while and looks ready for a correction.
  3. In the case of a trend going for a long time it is advisable to take only one profit target which should be just before the first SR level in line with your SL - even if the SL is greater than the TP and you have a Risk:Reward of less than 1:1.
  4. If distance between long term trend and short term trend when in opposite directions (caused by the price moving sharply away from the higher trend line), is much higher than the ADR you can put in a first target (scalping) trade against the long term trend as soon as the short term trend is broken by the "breaking rule" applicable to trend reversals.
  5. If first target is close or more than ADR must put in only one target. It is advisable for beginners to only use one profit target in the beginning until they become successful and gain enough confidence and experience to go also for the second target.
  6. The first Take Profit should usually be at the second and third SR levels from place of entry.
  7. Stop Loss should be the closest safest option at swing low/high level and targeting a 1:1, or better Risk Reward. If closest SL is too far away (e.g. much more than ADR) abandon trade.
  8. If there is a long bar (maybe because of a news release), but the price moves in right direction after signal - the previous SR level can be considered as a SL position in place of the swing high/low.
  9. If you use two profit targets - move the SL to breakeven, when the price reaches the first target.

 

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